Our green jobs data builds on a number of analyses across several sectors of the UK economy: green infrastructure, R&D, digital infrastructure and care.
All green infrastructure jobs are adapted from ‘Unlocking the Job Potential of Zero Carbon’ (2018), published by the Green European Foundation with the support of UK-based Green House think tank. As well as recalculating the data at parliamentary constituency level, a series of adjustments to this data were made in order to bring estimates in line with what analysts deemed plausible for job creation over the next 2 and 10 years. All 10-year figures were also multiplied by 0.8 to give 2-year figures to account for the slower delivery possible in the next two years. The result of these adjustments is a total figure of 557,000 green infrastructure jobs in the next two years.
R&D and digital infrastructure
The TUC found that research and development (R&D) in decarbonising technology in manufacturing could help create over 38,440 jobs in the next two years. This figure was distributed to constituencies based on levels of existing manufacturing infrastructure, with a multiplier for 10-year investment. The same study found that investment in high-speed broadband could help create 42,365 jobs in the next two years. This figure was distributed evenly to all 650 constituencies.
Our original Green Jobs for All report shows how a total of 646,000 jobs in care work could be created across the UK. Constituency level estimates are an approximate forecast based on expected demand per constituency, derived from the proportion of each constituency over the age of fifty (as a forecast for future elderly care) and a forecast for each constituency currently in receipt of Disability Living Allowance (as a proxy forecast for other adult social care).
Covid-19 permanent job losses
Our estimates for permanent job losses as a result of Covid-19 – the interaction of its economic impact with propensities for future automation – are based on analysis by the RSA and explained in full in our Green Jobs for All report. Constituency level estimates follow from the proportion of jobs per constituency in RSA’s high-risk category; these were multiplied by the fraction of furloughed jobs in recent UK Government data to give an indicator of risk of permanent loss.
Our national cost estimate, detailed in Green Jobs for All, estimated a total cost to the exchequer of £68 billion over the next two years, corresponding to the creation of over 1.2m jobs. No costing has been provided for job creation at a local level; we assume that all additional funding would be borne by central government as part of a national-scale investment.